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Only 29k of those 0. The positive portion of the graph includes the times you lost your bankroll and then recovered to finish positive. Hands: 1. BTW, we developed a similar variance calculator on your site for tournaments which requires a different approach to risk of ruin.. One is bb per hands and is as in examples. The confidence intervals in his graph have nothing to do with risk of ruin. It should work. The same goes for poker hands. That number gets worse as the risk of ruin is reduced. It in no way changes the fact that the calculations in that section are no way to compute the bankroll requirement for a desired risk of ruin. The risk of ruin and the necessary bankroll is calculated independently from the confidence interval. The range of outcomes is wider. Updated: May 74 Comments By Primedope. What youre looking for is the standard deviation for the mean. Variance in numbers Below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: EV : win rate entered above Standard deviation : standard deviation entered above Hands : number of hands entered above Expected winnings : estimated winnings over the simulated amount of hands Standard deviation after X hands : This number shows by how much your actual results will differ from the expected results on average.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Here is a derivation of the risk of ruin formula Pokerdope gave which has been simplified to require nothing more than high school algebra:. Try hard reloading the page Ctrl-Shift-R and see if that helps. Another is just std dev. We have winrate and observed winrate, any differences? Probability of running at or above observed win rate Probability of running below observed win rate You see, those tables were simulated at the distance over mil hands. Hello, anyone can explain what observed winrate is? At least this will show the maximum impact all in hands have on the standard deviation. The mitigating factor is that both of those numbers are relatively small. I would assume it is big bet. Hi Mitch, these is the complete overview of my calculations. It was surely known in mathematics before that as the general expression is important in financial math, and it can also be obtained from the Weiner process. If we want a 0. Those are the numbers I got:. I currently am sending my Mental Game Coaching clients over to this website to learn about the true effect of variance in their game. In my database I have 3. It runs in R which is a platform for statistical computing which free and very easy to install. I wrote some of it. If your ture winrate is 2. Maybe something like ? Generally because players tend to play worse during down swings. Thank you for answering my question. I noticed that the 20 random graphs in cg variance simulator almost always have one graph that is outside of the 2 std deviation line.. Here is a link to the script. To calculate the variance of the sum for 10 thousand hands you have to think how many groups of hands does have? They basically show, how much variance you should expect to see. Fortunately, this problem mitigates as the probability of going broke is reduced. This number will appear as a rather boring straight and black line in the graph. IOW, if you lose your at some point, you can still keep playing, as if someone lent you additional funds. Regular cash game, not fast fold. Am confused if the BB is big bet or big blind. That means you have won big blinds over 10, hands. His graph is showing you a range of results assuming you can play through any drawdowns. For example the variance for a single fair coin flip is 0. Using the example above with a win rate of 2. Any chance you can create a simulator for live players? I always see people on the forums : say it is as likely to run below EV or above EV but this says otherwise. Attempting to use confidence intervals to compute risk of ruin is a well known blunder. Once you have entered the data, hit Calculate and the let the Calculator do its magic. Help explaining this would be greatly appreciated. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}Standard Deviation heavily depends on your play style. We want the population of all random walks that never go broke. The variance for poker hands in NLH 6max is, say, squared. Like what language you used and what sort of things went into making this. If you want to know the variance of the sum of 10 coin flips you do 0. Do you assume normal distribution? I cleared the cache just in case. In your example of a 2. Everything is super misleading. The rake is already considered in the win rate. You may put in the description than you use std dev per hands. It would be correct if online poker would work with correct and real life daily math, but since it doesnt, any calculation is a fail. The variance calc is complete non sense. Your win rate should always be after the rake. Lots of folks may not care if their risk of ruin is 1. First off this is excellent and clean! Thus the Bankroll Required to Assure a Win tables do contain solid estimates and produce a risk of ruin of approximately 1. Do you have sophisticated guesses for the STD of 6-max five-card Omaha? Winnings are measured in big blinds. Hit "Calculate"! There is also an analytical short term ruin formula for risk of ruin in a finite number of hands. I just went through my database with a couple of million cash game hands to get some detailed numbers about the standard deviation of all players in the database. Thank you. But I think we can get a decent approximation when we just remove all hands with an all-in and call before the river when calculating the standard deviation. The 0. Using the former population for bankroll requirements and risk of ruin is mathematical nonsense. Except you are considering the wrong population. The risk of ruin formula as correctly given by Pokerdope counts these instances as a failure. This is equal to 2. So the smaller is your sample the less chance for you will be to ruin. You chose that as a way to include essentially all of a population as is common in statistics. Lower win rates drastically increase the Likelihood of extended down swings. I filtered for number of players and removed all players with less than hands. Before that it was well known to the blackjack community, having appeared in papers by George C. A risk of ruin formula is not and cannot be based on confidence intervals. Also HM2 has 2 different stats for std dev. Especially since, even though I am a small winner in my games, I am perpetually running below EV and my actual winnings should be much higher than they currently are. Meaning : We can compare this with the numbers above for Games with 6 players. Could anybody explain me.. So the difference is like, eg, for midstack nlhe 65 vs 6. Is this a bug? This means that these tables are significantly underestimating by a factor of about 2 the amount of bankroll needed to only have a 5 percent chance of going broke.